Outlook (Thursday) : Stocks may slip again

European indices declined with fairly sharp losses last night, and the US indices also fell with moderate losses. Most Asian markets are also down this morning with small to moderate losses. However, the SGX Nifty was up 32 points at around 0910.

Our market declined further yesterday, and is likely to fall further today with the global short-term trend still down, even though SGX Nifty is up.

Intermediate Trend : stays down

The chart on the left shows the nifty between Feb 1 and May 4. The points marked "T" are intermediate tops, while those marked "B" are intermediate bottoms.

The dashed line in the centre of the chart is the 200-day moving average of the nifty.

The market is in an intermediate downtrend which started on Apr 28 when the sensex topped out at 26,101 (T-2).

Long-term Trend : most likely up

The chart on the left shows the sensex between Feb 1 and May 4. The points marked "T" are intermediate tops, while those marked "B" are intermediate bottoms. 

The dashed line in the centre of the chart is the 200-day moving average of the sensex.

Our market’s long-term is most likely up, with the indices having shown rising intermediate tops and bottoms and briefly crossing their 200-day moving averages.

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